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  • expert headshot
    R.J. White
    #2
    +520
    (60%)
    18-12-2 in Last 32 NFL Picks
    TB -7.5
    -118
    Spread
    Picked: Sep 14 @ 12:11pm

    Analysis

    The Buccaneers fumbled their way to a loss last week, and with better ball security, they might have beaten Cincy. This should be a much easier game to get into the win column. The Browns were abysmal on both sides of the ball in Week 1 save for a meaningless deep TD to Denzel Boston. The Bucs' defensive front should give the Cleveland O-line fits, and the Bucs' offensive front can handle this version of the Browns defense. The Jags were outside the number by the end of the first quarter last week, and while it might take the Bucs until halftime to get there, I still see this as a double-digit win.
  • expert headshot
    Eric Cohen
    EC
    player headshot
    B. Mayfield
    Over 209.5
    -113
    Passing Yards
    Picked: Sep 17 @ 3:14pm

    Analysis

    I would think that Baker Mayfield absolutely wants to stick it to his old team on Sunday, especially since Cleveland is now stuck with Deshaun Watson as their starting quarterback. Last week, Trevor Lawrence threw for 245 yards on only 23 attempts vs. Cleveland – the third-most yards per attempt, the highest passer rating, and the highest passing success rate. I underestimated how bad the Browns defense really is in the post Myles Garrett-era. I think Mayfield goes for 225+ as the Bucs do whatever they want offensively in Week 2.
  • expert headshot
    Sia Nejad
    +64
    (57%)
    4-3 in Last 7 NFL Player Props Picks
    player headshot
    B. Irving
    Over 61.5
    -110
    Rushing Yards
    Picked: Sep 18 @ 5:18pm

    Analysis

    Consider this one of several ways you can fade the Browns. I expect the Browns front seven to be ok in this game, but Bucky should get to this numer on volume alone (15+ carries is the expectation). Last week the rushing attack was phased out thanks to a very negative game script, but early in the game we witnessed Bucky getting his anticipated lead back role and his efficiency. Expect four quarters of the rushing attack this week with Bucky getting most of the work.
  • expert headshot
    Megan Shoup
    #3
    +478
    (73%)
    8-3 in Last 11 NFL Player Props Picks
    player headshot
    E. Egbuka
    Over 52.5
    -114
    Receiving Yards
    Picked: Sep 18 @ 11:20pm

    Analysis

    Last week I was anxious to see how much Emeka Egbuka was involved after missing time in Preseason with an injury. But he looked great and was very involved, with an 88% route share, 21% target share, and 25% first-read target share. He caught five passes for 63 yards. Now his receiving line is just at 52.5 as the true WR1 for the Bucs? I'm jumping on this line and will likely ladder it to 60+ for plus money.
  • expert headshot
    Prop Bet Guy
    #1
    +970
    (75%)
    15-5 in Last 20 NFL Player Props Picks
    player headshot
    C. Otton
    Under 15.5
    -115
    Longest Reception
    Picked: Sep 20 @ 11:02am

    Analysis

    Caesar’s (-106). Cade Otton is coming off a pedestrian performance in a terrific matchup against the Bengals. Today, he’ll have a much tougher spot against the Browns. Otton’s average depth of target in Week 1 was 4.6 yards, similar to the 5.1 he accrued last season. Only 13% of his targets last season traveled at least 10 air yards. The Browns are stingy against tight ends, ranking inside the top 10 of yards per catch, yards per target and DVOA against the position in 2025. Baker Mayfield will have his full stable of receivers today, with Jalen McMillan expected to be back in action as well. Plus, the Bucs should be in a positive gamescript against the lowly Browns.

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